AP-AM--MHX-NC NC Area Forecast Discussion, AM

000

FXUS62 KMHX 151346

AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

946 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND TODAY WITH HIGH

PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE

NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM

THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE FOR THE

WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 945 AM WED...REMOVED POPS FROM FCST UNTIL AFTERNOON AND

LOWERED POPS TO 20-30% HIGHEST COAST.

SHRT WV TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM NW WILL MOVE INTO ERN NC THIS

AFTN AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS. SPC HAS BACKED OFF

ON SVR POTL FOR ENC WITH MARGINAL THREAT LOCATED ALONG IMMEDIATE

COAST FROM NR CAPE LOOKOUT S. CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH

THIS MORNING...ALLOWING DECENT INSOLATION THIS AFTN FOR HIGHS

AROUND 90 INLAND AND 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TO 20-30 HIGHEST

COASTAL SECTIONS DURG THE EVE. SHRT WV TROF WILL BE MOVING

OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BUT SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR

PSBL LINGERING SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...AND

ISOLATED THREAT ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY

MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 70 INLAND AND MID 70S

COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM WED...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY

MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN

SEABOARD. THE HIGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE SUMMERTIME

LEESIDE TROF REFORMS AGAIN ALONG TO JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL

PLAIN. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY

COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. OTHERWISE EXPECTING

DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT MAINLY DIURNAL

CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO

CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF

PERIOD ALL SITES. LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS N OF AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT

TO MODERATE SW FLOW ACROSS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPR SHRT WV

MOVING ACROSS FROM NW. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSTM THREAT WILL DEVELOP FOR

ERN TAF SITES AFTER 08Z THIS MORNING AS SHRT WV MOVES IN...WITH

ISOLATED THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCT

ACTIVITY PSBL THIS AFTN INTO EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NW

BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT FOG THREAT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM WED...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED

CONVECTION POSSIBLE EWN AND OAJ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY THURSDAY

NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNS

SATURDAY. LIGHT NNE WIND AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY...NE 5 KT

FRIDAY... SE AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY AND SW AROUND 5 KT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...WILL CONT SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH

NOON. STRONGER SW WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT PERSISTING

OVER PAMLICO SOUND...AND LATEST MESO MODELS INDICATE CONTINUING

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

PRES GRADIENT WILL CONT TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING

ACRS THE SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE AFTN...WITH WIND SHIFT

TO NW LATE TONIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL LINGER TO

AROUND 6 FT OUTER PORTIONS CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL EARLY THU MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM WED...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH COAST

THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS BRIEFLY DOWN THE EASTERN

SEABOARD UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE LEESIDE TROF INLAND REFORMS

AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FLOW

WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG

TERM...THEN STEADILY VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY. WINDS THROUGH

THE PERIOD 5-15 KNOTS. SEAS 3-5 FEET THURSDAY SUBSIDING TO 2-3

FEET SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR

AMZ135.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM

NEAR TERM...JAC/JBM

SHORT TERM...JAC/JBM

LONG TERM...HSA

AVIATION...JAC/JBM/HSA

MARINE...JAC/JBM/HSA

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:46AM EDT