AP-NC--AKQ-NC NE Area Forecast Discussion, NC

000

FXUS61 KAKQ 151509

AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1109 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY

THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME CENTERED

FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL

LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATE THIS MORNG...SFC LO PRES WAS CNTRD JUST OFF THE SRN NEW

JERSEY CST...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS

OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE

CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC COASTAL REGION...SO THE INHIBITING

FACTORS FROM YESTERDAY WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

IS GENLY LESS THAN 25 KT EXCEPT ACRS THE EAST THIS AFTN...SO

SEVERE TSTMS ARE GENLY NOT EXPECTED (AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM

POSSIBLE THIS AFTN OVER ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN

ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER ERN SECTIONS AS WELL. BY EARLY THIS

AFTN...EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER

NRN/NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES SE INTO ERN

VA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW HRS OF ENOUGH LIFT/DECENT AND ML CAPES ON

THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO HAVE LOW END LIKELY POPS (60 THIS AFTN

FROM THE VA NRN NECK TO THE ERN SHORE...TAPERED TO 30-40% POPS

FOR MOST OF CENTRAL VA. DRY AIR ARRIVES EARLIER/LIFT IS WEAKER/AND

ML CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE MINIMAL ACRS THE CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT

ZONES...SO WILL KEEP 20% POPS OVER THESE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL

RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN MD...TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 F MOST

AREAS...TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE FAR SRN VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. WILL

MAINTAIN CHC POPS E OF I-95 INTO ERLY EVENING...AS THE ACTUAL

FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ONE LAST PERIOD OF

STRONGER LIFT 21Z-00Z. MAINLY DRY W OF I-95...AND DRY ALL ZONES

AFTER 01-04Z. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FM THE MID 60S NW TO LWR 70S

SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HI PRES WILL FINALLY BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NNE THU INTO FRI

MORNG. NW FLOW ALOFT AND NE FLOW IN LOW LEVELS DOES LOOK TO

SUPPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU ESP ERN SECTIONS THRU MIDDAY

THU...SUCH THAT SKIES MAY AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY TO

MOSTLY SUNNY W OF I-95. MORE COMFORTABLE ON THU WITH HIGHS MAINLY

IN THE LWR TO MID 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60-65 F RANGE MOST AREAS.

CONTINUED DRY WX THU NGT AND FRI...AS THE HI SLIDES OFF THE NEW

ENGLAND AND NRN MID ATLC CST DURING FRI. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY

THU NGT WITH LOWS RANGING THRU THE 60S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON

FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID-

UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY THE GRADUAL BUILDING OF HEIGHTS

ALOFT AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. SFC HIGH

PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO

BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED TO THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY AS SFC

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. RESULTANT VEERING OF WINDS FROM THE E-

NE TO THE SSW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE TO A GRADUAL RAMP UP

OF TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK, WITH PCPN BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE. MAX TEMPS

WILL RANGE FM THE MID/UPPER 80S FRI...UPR 80S TO LWR 90S SAT - MON.

EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS

MORNING...RESULTING IN SW TO W WINDS AOB 10 KT AT THE TAF SITES. ONLY

HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL OVER THE SE LOCAL AREA.

SFC TROUGH SLIDES EWD THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE NE

COAST. A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED KRIC EWD. BEST COVERAGE

EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING KSBY. HAVE INCLUDED SHRA KSBY

AT 18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO MVFR KSBY BY 18Z. FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE

THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND AND NW TO N WINDS AOB

10 KT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS

DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE

RESIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS OCCURRED EARLIER

THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. SEAS

3-4 FT AND WAVES 2-3 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST TODAY

WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING.

WINDS BECOME NLY BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER

THE BAY AND COASTAL WATER. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT

FOR THE BAY...BUT SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 25 KT IN THE COASTAL

WATER. WINDS BECOME NELY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RE-ORGANIZES

OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. FLOW BECOMES N-NE IN THE COASTAL

WATERS...PUSHING SEAS TO 4-5 FT NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND LATE

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND THURS MORNING AS THE

LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATER WEAKENS...ALLOWING

WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY MID-LATE MORNING THURS. N

TO NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...KEEPING

SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 4-5 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THE

DAY THURS. SEAS SUBSIDE THURS NIGHT AS NE WINDS DROP AOB 10 KT OVER

THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THRU FRI BEFORE

FLOW RETURNS TO THE S-SW SAT...REMAINING AOB 15 KT. SLY FLOW

PERSISTS SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...NONE.

NC...NONE.

VA...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT

THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR

ANZ654-656-658.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR

ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB

NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG

SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG

LONG TERM...MAM

AVIATION...SAM

MARINE...SAM

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:09AM EDT