AP-NC--RDU-NC NO Central Area Forecast Discussion, NC

000

FXUS62 KRAH 151424 RRA

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

1024 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD

FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1020 AM WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE

AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW STRAY WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING AROUND

15 KTS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. NO PRECIPITATION

IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED OUT INTO

THE MID 60S BEHIND THE TROUGH AND WINDS HAVE GONE NORTHWESTERLY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING

OVER CENTRAL NC. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN

THE UPPER 80S NW TO MID 90S SE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK 1018MB

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES RIDGES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE

AREA. THE NAM SUGGESTS WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS THAT MAY

TRY TO ADVECT THE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE

UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. -CBL

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A DRY AIR RIDGE WILL ANCHOR THE LOWER

LEVELS. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY

WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION...WITH ISOLATED TO

WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG OUR WESTERN AND EASTERN

FLANKS OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND

INLAND PENETRATION OF SEA BREEZE. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER

90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 325 AM WEDNESDAY...

A FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE SAVANNAH BASIN WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST

ACROSS NC FRI-SAT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST

TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE

INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...AND

ASSOCIATED ENE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN NC...WILL MAINTAIN

STABILITY OVER MOST OF THE REGION ON FRI. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR

THE YADKIN RIVER...WHERE THE RETREAT OF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED

LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY

SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS FRI AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE

THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE SW

DIRECTION...AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE LOWER

MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS. NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION --WITH A FOCUS

ALONG THE MOUNTAINS; PIEDMONT TROUGH; AND SEA BREEZE-- IS GENERALLY

EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A RELATIVE PEAK THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE

ORIENTATION AND LOCATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NW TO NNW FLOW ALOFT TO DRIFT ACROSS NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY SUPPORT

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE

COASTAL SECTIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE

EXITING COLD FRONT...THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST/SOUTH OF THE

FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN

PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION

THROUGH THE PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME PREDAWN MORNING

FOG/STRATUS...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL

NEAR TERM...ELLIS/CBL

SHORT TERM...CBL

LONG TERM...26

AVIATION...CBL

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:24AM EDT