AP-SC--CAE-SC W Cntrl Area Forecast Discussion, SC

000

FXUS62 KCAE 151518

AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

1118 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH

THURSDAY. ALOFT...THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH A

SERIES OF DISTURBANCES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS

WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED

WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF

THE FORECAST AREA AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EASTERN

MIDLANDS. FOR CELLS WHICH DEVELOP THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR

WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION

WHICH DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING

LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES

WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID

70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING NEAR SOUTH AND

EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO

BUILD FARTHER EASTWARD AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE

SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. FORECASTED A

SMALL POP MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE

FEATURE. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EARLY IN THE MEDIUM-

RANGE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT POSSIBLY NEAR THE REGION LATE IN

THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO

THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE

PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LOW POPS. THE

GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS

OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR

AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WHILE A MID LEVEL CAP WILL

WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. AS SUCH THREAT FOR IMPACTS AT ANY TAF

SITE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. CONVECTION WHICH

DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES

OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN

VEER TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE

COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION

EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.

GA...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 11:18AM EDT