AP-SC-ILM-SC SuppressionForecast, SC

000

FNUS72 KILM 151303

FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR JONES LAKE...NC STATE PARK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

903 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 15.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN

STALL ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

THE SEABREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST...THUS INLAND CONVECTION

WILL BE ISOLATED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR RAINFALL. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL

BUILD DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.

MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.

WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC

WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE

MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT

AGL.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 12 MPH.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2989-56349 MPH-FT)...INCREASING

TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT (67160-74980 MPH-FT) LATE.

TIME (EDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM

TEMP................89 92 93

RH..................54 48 46

20 FT WIND..........W 8 W 8 W 7

20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15

MIX HGT (FT)........5200 5600 6200

TRANSPORT WIND......W 10 W 10 W 12

VRATE MPH-FT/1000...51 56 75

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.

MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.

WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE

EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN

BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND

ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN

THE EVENING.

MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1000 FT

AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING

LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE

IN THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1150-39330 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM

TEMP................91 85 80 77 76 74

RH..................51 62 73 79 82 87

20 FT WIND..........NW 5 N 4 N 3 N 3 N 3 N 5

20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 10

MIX HGT (FT)........4400 1000 200 200 300 200

TRANSPORT WIND......W 9 NW 2 SW 5 W 7 N 5 N 7

VRATE MPH-FT/1000...39 3 1 1 1 2

$$

FORECASTER...DIGIORGI

REQUESTED BY...JOHN PRIVETTE

TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED

.TAG 20150715.JONES.01/ILM

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:04AM EDT